Preseason Pick: Oregon
At first glance, it seems weird that the line is so high. Arizona has been a quality team all year long, and while they have had a couple off nights (most notably at Stanford), overall they've been strong. They've got a good defense, they've got a great quarterback in Foles, and on the right day they're capable of beating almost anyone. Meanwhile Oregon nearly lost at a very mediocre Cal team two weeks ago.
On the Other Hand:
Oregon is simply a night and day better team at Autzen. They won big against Stanford, and they've completely destroyed everyone else. Even if Arizona hangs around for a while, eventually the Ducks could easily go on a run like they usually do and turn this one ugly quick.
It'll be interesting for a while, but at some point the Ducks take control and turn it into yet another home rout.
@ Oregon 45, Arizona 21
Oregon St @ Stanford (-13)
Preseason Pick: Oregon St
Stanford is playing for a BCS bowl bid and can't afford to screw around here. The Beavers are up and down, and if they're up in this game they have a shot, but Stanford ought to win without too much trouble. This game is too important to think that there'll be a letdown here.
@ Stanford 35, Oregon St 14
Washington @ Cal (-7)
Preseason Pick: Cal
Last week's ugly loss aside, Cal has been extremely good at home all year long. They've blown out Colorado, UCLA, and ASU, and they can do it again here.
@ Cal 31, Washington 14
UCLA @ Arizona St (-12)
Preseason Pick: ASU
UCLA is going to be desperate for a win, but I don't think they find it here. ASU keeps alive their hopes for a bowl game waiver for another week.
@ Arizona St 31, UCLA 21
Notre Dame @ USC (-4.5)
I don't really trust either of these teams to be good or bad. Notre Dame has been hot lately, but their only meaningful achievement this season was the beatdown of Utah. USC has been up and down too, but they're the better team and at home. Unless Mustain just stinks up the joint (possible but I think unlikely), they should win this game, maybe even easily.
@ USC 31, Notre Dame 17
National Games of the Week:
Auburn @ Alabama (-4)
This should be a good game. Auburn has the better record, but honestly I think these two teams are very even. And at Tuscaloosa, I think the Tide is going to roll.
@ Alabama 24, Auburn 17
LSU @ Arkansas (-3.5)
I think Arkansas is the better team, and they're at home.
@ Arkansas 31, LSU 21
Boise St (-13.5) @ Nevada
Boise is going to be playing to win and win big, but Nevada, especially at home, can give them a test. Boise wins but they're tested here.
Boise St 38, @ Nevada 31
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St (-2.5)
This should be a close game, but under 3 is just a touch too light of a line.
@ Oklahoma St 31, Oklahoma 28
FAU +5.5 @ MTSU
Fading Middle Tenn has been a consistent winner; I have no idea why anyone thinks this team isn't awful, but apparently people still do.
WKU +13 @ Troy
Troy just isn't that good this year. Anything over 7 seems too high to me.
Idaho +10 @ Fresno
The difference between these two teams just isn't that big. Idaho has a reasonable upset shot here.
Pac-10: 55-13 SU, 28-31-1 ATS
National: 26-14 SU, 21-17-2 ATS
Bad Lines: 18-30-3
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