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Playing with numbers
Posted Oct 18, 2013
IrishEyes.com breaks down facts and figures as it relates to recruiting and Saturday's night contest between long-time rivals Notre Dame and USC.
The average number of signees from California that
has signed in each class in the past decade. The highest was 2004 (four) and the lowest was 2005 (zero). This year’s class has the potential to skew the average, with one already in the fold (defensive end
) and five still on the radar. Those five will all be on hand this weekend – tight end
, offensive guard
, wide receiver
and wide receiver
. Of those five, all but Washington commit Erik Brown hold an offer from USC. Damien Mama is the most likely of that group to end up as a Trojan, and tight end Tyler Luatua is most likely to end up Irish.
More four- and five-star prospects USC has signed than Notre Dame since 2009 – the last class with players still on the roster. Since 2009, USC has signed 51 four-stars, compared to Notre Dame’s 44. Last year, Notre Dame signed 18 four-stars. Before that, seven was the highest total of four-stars signed since 2009 (2009 and 2012). So, taking that into account, the number of four-stars on the field Saturday night dip even more into USC’s favor, considering the great majority of the 18 signed in 2013 will hardly contribute. USC has signed 16 five-stars since 2009, compared to Notre Dame’s 10. Overall, USC has signed 67 four-and five-stars since 2009. Notre Dame has signed 54. No wonder it seems difficult for these fan bases to get excited about a three-star.
Percentage of Notre Dame commits and recruits that I asked who predicted the Irish will win on Saturday night. A few offered more than just score predictions: Offensive line commit
: Notre Dame, given the bye week I know our coaches will have the guys ready to go. We also have a dominant line on both sides. If our wide receivers get open and Rees has time to throw, we could run away early. Linebacker commit
: My only prediction is that Notre Dame wins. I’m not sure how, but I know it will be hard for them to lose in the atmosphere they will be playing in. Tight end commit
: Notre Dame wins 27-17.
is going to have a big day. Kicker/punter commit
: Notre Dame 31-28. They are at home, Brindza will be on fired and possibly get the game winner. Athlete target
: Notre Dame wins 27-21.
both with big games!
The number of 2014 commitments USC currently touts. That list includes three four-stars, four three-stars and one two-star. All are from the state of California. Eight is also the number of 2015 offers Notre Dame has extended thus far to prospects in California.
The approximate number miles that the 12 (uncommitted) visitors this weekend (in the 2014 class only) will travel to arrive at Notre Dame Stadium. Mileage was measured from each prospect’s high school and then added together for the total. The longest distances belong to wide receiver Michiah Quick of Central (Calif.) Fresno (2,133) and athlete Juju Smith of Long Beach (Calif.) Poly (2,130). As you might can guess, the one with the shortest travel time is in-state athlete Drue Tranquill of Fort Wayne (Ind.) Carroll (73.8). Considering the ratio of prospects to miles, 14,500+ has got to be some type of record, right?
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